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Official 2024 Free Agency Discussion

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by BakoSaint His contract is not the worst part. Its the team that gave him the contract, what his contract means for us, with our cap situation. If any other team had given him the contract they could ...

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Old 03-04-2024, 11:53 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
His contract is not the worst part. Its the team that gave him the contract, what his contract means for us, with our cap situation. If any other team had given him the contract they could pull the rip cord and escape it before paying him $40 million 2025 or $50 million in 2026. The $50 million in 2026 was even discussed as not being real, effectively a void year, looking at the modest cost to bail on the deal at that point, which would be leverage to renegotiate at a more reasonable number if it was working out. But with the way the Saints manage the salary cap starting every year $100 million over the cap and restructuring every deal, we can't afford the dead cap that comes with pulling the rip cord on a deal this big, because that modest sum to get out of the deal if needed increases with every restructure. For any other team, Carr's contract would be a roll of the dice that is done in 2 years if it fails. For the Saints, its ride or die for the long term on Carr being elite, and that is what makes it a disaster. DeShaun Watson's deal is fully guaranteed, making it a disaster. The truth is that Derek Carr's deal is really fully guaranteed too, not because the language of the contract prevents Carr from ever being cut, but because the the state of the Saints salary cap and the way they manage it prevents him from ever being cut. But at least Watson's contract expires and the Browns will not be inquiring about an extension. With Carr, an extension in 2027 is highly probable to avoid what will be a $60 million or so dead cap hit at the time if he is not extended just after restructuring his 2025 $50 million salary to kick the can on another $40 million of it.
Whatever ...

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Old 03-04-2024, 11:56 AM   #152
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

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Old 03-04-2024, 12:06 PM   #153
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
Whatever ...

Translation: I see what you’re saying, but I don’t want to.
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Old 03-04-2024, 09:13 PM   #154
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II View Post
Klint Kubiak loves his tight ends and if Brock Bowers is there at 14 we should grab him. If not, there should be some good tackles left on the board. We need to prepare for Ram's retirement and/or Penning's limitations. Right now, I have zero confidence in our tackles.
I would rather get some production out of the huge collection of first round offensive lineman we already have but I guess that's asking too much. I feel like we can get equally mediocre play out of a 2nd or 3rd round tackle. Save the first rounder for another player with raw potential and huge upside with an injury history.
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Old 03-04-2024, 09:36 PM   #155
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
I would rather get some production out of the huge collection of first round offensive lineman we already have but I guess that's asking too much. I feel like we can get equally mediocre play out of a 2nd or 3rd round tackle. Save the first rounder for another player with raw potential and huge upside with an injury history.
Lets talk about this 'huge collection.'

Andrus Peat was technically a 1st round pick, 9 years ago, but is now a 30 year old injury riddled journeyman level player who has switched position twice due to performance issues and commands a $4 million salary as a borderline replacement starter / quality backup. The fact that he commanded a 1st round pick in 2015 is irrelevant today. It's like trying to bring back Bortles as our backup QB to get production out of him because he was once a 1st round pick, demanding that a late career Robert Meachem should have been penciled in as an elite starter for the Saints in his final year with the team in 2014 because he has been a 1st round pick in 2008. It just does not work that way.

Trevor Penning was a late 1st round pick 2 years ago but has been historically bad, Jamarcus Russel / Ryan Leaf except at oline bad. At this point his salary is guaranteed but it might be best to focus on how he could contribute on special teams or learn long snapping to secure his roster spot since he did not see the field at the end of the year even when everyone else was injured.

Ryan Ramczyk was an excellent 1st round pick 7 years ago. But like another great Saints Right Tackle Kyle Turley, he broke down after 6 seasons, as some big men do. He has a degenerative knee condition and we cannot control what production we get out of him. He may be an 'unfortunate setback' away from retirement and unfortunate setbacks are incredibly common in these situations. The front office is optimistic about his recovery, but they financially can't afford to cut him, so they have to be, and he is nowhere near being able to practice.

Carlos Ruiz was a late 1st round pick 4 years ago. He is a mediocre right guard and every indication is thats what he is. Maybe one year he will play a little above average, another year a little below average, depending on his contract status.

So realistically, who are we going to get more out of there? We have 3 first round picks but one is ancient and near retirement and was never great. One has been a total bust. One has a degenerative knee. One is proven mediocre. We aren't going to get more out of them, except that 'less is more' with Penning so if he doesn't play that will be giving us more. But Peat was better than expected in 2023 and is likely to revert to the mean on injuries, Ram's knee is degenerative and more likely to get worse than better, and Ruiz has always been 'meh.'

So you can ignore the positon because of two recent missed in Penning and Ruiz and because you personally demand that Ram have a longer career than Kyle Turley and completely ignore Peat's age and history, and you can draft another position because Penning spooked you about oline. But ignoring the positon won't solve it, and Carr will be on his back remembering that some receiver you wanted was open if he had another minute to throw.
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Old 03-05-2024, 08:36 AM   #156
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
Lets talk about this 'huge collection.'

Andrus Peat was technically a 1st round pick, 9 years ago, but is now a 30 year old injury riddled journeyman level player who has switched position twice due to performance issues and commands a $4 million salary as a borderline replacement starter / quality backup. The fact that he commanded a 1st round pick in 2015 is irrelevant today. It's like trying to bring back Bortles as our backup QB to get production out of him because he was once a 1st round pick, demanding that a late career Robert Meachem should have been penciled in as an elite starter for the Saints in his final year with the team in 2014 because he has been a 1st round pick in 2008. It just does not work that way.

Trevor Penning was a late 1st round pick 2 years ago but has been historically bad, Jamarcus Russel / Ryan Leaf except at oline bad. At this point his salary is guaranteed but it might be best to focus on how he could contribute on special teams or learn long snapping to secure his roster spot since he did not see the field at the end of the year even when everyone else was injured.

Ryan Ramczyk was an excellent 1st round pick 7 years ago. But like another great Saints Right Tackle Kyle Turley, he broke down after 6 seasons, as some big men do. He has a degenerative knee condition and we cannot control what production we get out of him. He may be an 'unfortunate setback' away from retirement and unfortunate setbacks are incredibly common in these situations. The front office is optimistic about his recovery, but they financially can't afford to cut him, so they have to be, and he is nowhere near being able to practice.

Carlos Ruiz was a late 1st round pick 4 years ago. He is a mediocre right guard and every indication is thats what he is. Maybe one year he will play a little above average, another year a little below average, depending on his contract status.

So realistically, who are we going to get more out of there? We have 3 first round picks but one is ancient and near retirement and was never great. One has been a total bust. One has a degenerative knee. One is proven mediocre. We aren't going to get more out of them, except that 'less is more' with Penning so if he doesn't play that will be giving us more. But Peat was better than expected in 2023 and is likely to revert to the mean on injuries, Ram's knee is degenerative and more likely to get worse than better, and Ruiz has always been 'meh.'

So you can ignore the positon because of two recent missed in Penning and Ruiz and because you personally demand that Ram have a longer career than Kyle Turley and completely ignore Peat's age and history, and you can draft another position because Penning spooked you about oline. But ignoring the positon won't solve it, and Carr will be on his back remembering that some receiver you wanted was open if he had another minute to throw.
You are assuming that what we currently have cannot be further developed. Did you listen to Jason Kelce's retirement speech yesterday? If not, do. He spoke of reaching a point five years into his career and a season in which fans and media alike wanted to run him out of town. He's even said he would have run himself out of town as badly as he was playing.

"I had an awful start to that season (2016) where I was often overpowered, had many holding penalties that cost our team, and looked like one of the worst centers in the league. I was wanted out of town by nearly everyone. And it wasn't just the fans that wanted me gone. It was nearly everyone in this organization. That offseason, I heard trade rumors galore and speculation I'd be cut. I imagine if the Eagles had received a trade offer for a brand new set of washing machines, they may have pulled the trigger. Hell, if I was in charge, I would have pulled the trigger. There's only one person in this building who still wanted me. And it's he who I have to thank most for the career I've had, that's Jeff Stoutland (offensive line coach)."

"Stout was the one who believed in me. He was adamant my problems could be fixed with proper technique, fundamentals, and work. And work we did. That offseason and Training Camp, I focused on using my hands better, playing with leverage, proper footwork, and prepared with an edge to prove to myself that I was good enough. The following season in 2017 I enjoyed the finest season of my 13-year career not only as a player, but as a team."

So much of being successful on the offensive line has to do with technique. With the right coaching Penning and Ruiz can be studs. Maybe not as great as Kelce, but definitely better than anyone that could be plugged in as raw as ALL linemen are entering the league today.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill
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Old 03-05-2024, 10:37 AM   #157
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

By the way, here's a transcript of Kelce's announcement. One of the best I've ever heard.
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Old 03-05-2024, 11:29 AM   #158
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
You are assuming that what we currently have cannot be further developed. Did you listen to Jason Kelce's retirement speech yesterday? If not, do. He spoke of reaching a point five years into his career and a season in which fans and media alike wanted to run him out of town. He's even said he would have run himself out of town as badly as he was playing.

"I had an awful start to that season (2016) where I was often overpowered, had many holding penalties that cost our team, and looked like one of the worst centers in the league. I was wanted out of town by nearly everyone. And it wasn't just the fans that wanted me gone. It was nearly everyone in this organization. That offseason, I heard trade rumors galore and speculation I'd be cut. I imagine if the Eagles had received a trade offer for a brand new set of washing machines, they may have pulled the trigger. Hell, if I was in charge, I would have pulled the trigger. There's only one person in this building who still wanted me. And it's he who I have to thank most for the career I've had, that's Jeff Stoutland (offensive line coach)."

"Stout was the one who believed in me. He was adamant my problems could be fixed with proper technique, fundamentals, and work. And work we did. That offseason and Training Camp, I focused on using my hands better, playing with leverage, proper footwork, and prepared with an edge to prove to myself that I was good enough. The following season in 2017 I enjoyed the finest season of my 13-year career not only as a player, but as a team."

So much of being successful on the offensive line has to do with technique. With the right coaching Penning and Ruiz can be studs. Maybe not as great as Kelce, but definitely better than anyone that could be plugged in as raw as ALL linemen are entering the league today.
2016 Jason Kelce, the underdog in this uplifting story, had a 71.4 PFF rating, higher than 3 of 5 seasons of Erik McCoy. Other than his 62.5 rookie season, that was Kelce's worst. Cesar Ruiz has had a PFF rating in the 50's every year of his career. Somehow Penning had a 73.6 rating in extremely limited snaps in jumbo formations in 2022 but was also in the 50's in 2023. So the problem is, while any player at any position could potentially improve, Penning and Ruiz have never had any season playing one of the regular 5 positions on the offensive line where they came close to matching the performance of Jason Kelce's worst season as a pro. Kelce's rookie season in 2011 was his worst season and in that season his performance matched the average of Erik McCoy's 2021 and 2022 seasons except with Kelce playing about 25% more snaps than McCoy managed either of those seasons. Kelce's next worse season, the 2016 campaign he mentions, is very similar to McCoy's 2020 season, essentially the median of McCoy's years in performance. Every other year of Kelce's career from 2012-2015 and 2017-2023 is in line with or much better than McCoy's best years. Kelce's 'almost getting kicked off the team' is the Saints 'anchoring the offensive line with consistency.'

While Penning and Ruiz, and based on Kelce's example more like a better McCoy for Kelce's early career, could improve, there is no reason they are more likely to improve than other players. Haener could be the next Mahomes. We could start Penning at Left Tackle and Taylor at slot corner week 1 and Penning could have the same problems as last year while Taylor could become the best slot corner in NFL history. The offensive lineman we drafted in the 4th round this year who testified against a russian oligarch shortly after signing and was never heard from again could become a pro bowler. Foskey or Turner could be the answer on pass rush. AT Perry could learn to block and begin drawing comparisons to Hines Ward if his blocking improves as much as some are suggesting Penning's will. Kendre Miller could become the next Christian McCaffery by improving his receiving skills and developing as a runner. Juwon Johnson could turn out to be the next Travis Kelce after his consistent progress was set back by a down year.

My point is that unexpected improvement is possible at any position. Expecting massive improvement is a risky bet. You could call that the 'Ridder strategy' and it did not work so well for Atlanta. We have draft picks and we have to invest them somewhere, so I think a reasonable way to approach that is 'where do we need the most help if the players we have don't make suddenly improve?' It's one thing to fact in steady progress we have already seen, like Shaheed and Olave's major positive development during 2022 set us up to expect continued progress in 2023, but its another thing to hold back on new investments in a position because of completely hypothetical progress.

I tend to disagree that a newly drafted offensive lineman could not step in and give us more than Penning or Ruiz. We have never seen a pff score above the 50's while playing a regular 5 oline position from Penning or Ruiz. So you are saying its impossible that any rookie, even at #14 overall, could give us a 60 pff score. McCoy's pff score in his rookie season in 2019 was 76.2. Broderick Jones went #14 overall last year and had a rookie PFF score of 60.7. Anton Harrison at #27 had 53.0. Steve Avila at #36 had 61.1. Matthew Bergeron at #38 had 59.5. Joe Tippman at #43 had 61. Cody Mauch at #48 had a lowly 44.7. John Michael Scmitz at #57 had a lowly 41.4. O'Cyrus Torrence at #59 had a 56.0. Juice Scruggs at #62 had a 51.5. So, of 9 offensive lineman selected between pick 14 and the end of the 2nd round in last years draft, 3 had PFF ratings in the 60's, slightly better than Cesar Ruiz has ever had, 5 had ratings in the 50's comperable to what Ruiz has always done, and 2 had ratings in the 40's with rookie struggles. So overall, if we draft oline it seems likely they could step right in and perform as well or better than Ruiz or Penning, with more chance to grow because they have not already plateaued.

Overall, long term, I think we have spent too many 1st round picks on oline and not enough mid round picks, especially at guard and center positions. But unfortunately right now we have urgent needs at oline and don't have a lot of mid round picks due to trades, nor extra time to wait on what might sometimes be slightly slower development. For those who complain that we have invested enough in oline looking at the 1st round picks, I think they need to consider that we have actually underinvested in the position in the draft when you factor in mid-round picks, relying too much on every 1st rounder to be a sure thing lock starter and utilizing undrafted free agents and journeymen as thrifty backups, since who needs backups when all your line are 1st round studs. But what we should have to done is invested more mid round picks, and set up competition. Jason Kelce was a 6th round pick who came in and beat Cesar Ruiz's best season his rookie year and beat McCoy's best season almost every year of his career. Evans and Nicks were similar mid round picks. But at some point Mickey Loomis developed a taste for golf and cocktails on day 2-3 and started trading away all our mid round picks and 'solving' the oline problem with 1st round golden boys. Long term, I would like to get back to investing enough mid round picks in the position to set up competition. But right now we need a left tackle, and thats the hardest position to find in the middle rounds. And if drafting another lights a fire under Penning, thats a great value too.
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Old 03-05-2024, 03:33 PM   #159
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Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion

We're gearing up for free agency and I've got my fingers crossed for another O line and possession Wide receiver.
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Old 03-05-2024, 03:59 PM   #160
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Re: Official 2024 Free Agency Discussion

It looks like a lot of safeties are getting released all across the league.


The are currently 51 UFA safeties across the league not including those recently released.
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