Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-08-2020, 10:09 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 10:52 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

This will be my last reply...

First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information.

Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death.

Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19.

Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities.

A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.”

I wish you all the best!

hitta · 04-09-2020, 12:22 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

This will be my last reply...

First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information.

Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death.

Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19.

Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities.

A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.”

I wish you all the best!

I can't even reply to that. There is so much wrong with what you just said, I don't even know how to deal with it. You say that flattening the curve is intended to decrease the number of infections in hospitals and not overload the system. This is true. It shouldn't shorten the model though. Flattening the curve should extend the infections into the later part of the year. What we've done is social distanced so much that R0 is or will be <1. A small percentage of the population has been infected. The virus will be reintroduced. The IFR you keep posting is incredibly optimistic cause it assumes an unmitgated R0 of around 3.5. I can promise you that the virus has never shown any signs of doubling in 1.8 days. Osterholms team followed around workers for weeks trying to see how rapid the spread was, and they isolated it to be somewhere around 2.5. The other points you've made... I just can't deal with. 60-80%(which is optimistic if the R0 is 3.5) of the population getting infected even with a .2% death rate is 390K-520K.
Also the seasonality thing is highly debatable. Like I said, other coronavirus have done incredibly well in warm weather.

04-08-2020, 10:09 PM	#1
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this. The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340

04-08-2020, 10:52 PM	#2
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though. This will be my last reply... First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information. Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death. Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19. Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities. A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.” I wish you all the best! burningmetal likes this.
	The Saints are 0-42 when running the ball less than 15 times in a game.

04-09-2020, 12:22 AM	#3
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold This will be my last reply... First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information. Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death. Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19. Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities. A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.” I wish you all the best! I can't even reply to that. There is so much wrong with what you just said, I don't even know how to deal with it. You say that flattening the curve is intended to decrease the number of infections in hospitals and not overload the system. This is true. It shouldn't shorten the model though. Flattening the curve should extend the infections into the later part of the year. What we've done is social distanced so much that R0 is or will be <1. A small percentage of the population has been infected. The virus will be reintroduced. The IFR you keep posting is incredibly optimistic cause it assumes an unmitgated R0 of around 3.5. I can promise you that the virus has never shown any signs of doubling in 1.8 days. Osterholms team followed around workers for weeks trying to see how rapid the spread was, and they isolated it to be somewhere around 2.5. The other points you've made... I just can't deal with. 60-80%(which is optimistic if the R0 is 3.5) of the population getting infected even with a .2% death rate is 390K-520K. Also the seasonality thing is highly debatable. Like I said, other coronavirus have done incredibly well in warm weather.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340