2022 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Yes, that's the Saints, all the way to the left, hard left...

There's still a lot of wiggling - guaranteeing contracts, rolling debt into future, possible increase in salary cap (though currently not expected), trading off assets in restructured deals...

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If Brees truly retires, doesn't the cap treat retirement $ differently?

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This is what I'm confused about but Drew's contract may be one that rewards him if he retires and hurts us. Great agent if so.

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All future guarantees hit the cap immediately (more or less).

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That's nothing unique about Brees' contract. All contracts with guarantees work the same way.

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You can have lots of cap space, loyal fans and play in a major market but if you've got lousy ownership/management then none of that matters and you're still bound for disaster. The Knicks in a nutshell.

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Precisely.

See the Jags and Jets :rolleyes:.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Cap space and loads of draft picks are over-rated. You can just look at the Vikings as for draft pick hoarding. The Saints get more impact with four picks than the Vikings get with 15.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Drews cap can be split over 2 years if needed. It's just about timing his retirement. Still means alot of dead money. The cap not jumping like expected will hit the team hard

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Cap schmap, least we aren’t the eagles.

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Seriously, I’m sure the Mick has a plan.

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17 game season in 2021 ... can anybody see the QB room remaining intact sign Winston on a prove it year. Maybe Brees isn’t number 1 QB coming out of camp, doubtful, but with a training camp under Winston’s belt it would be a good competition and would have a great backup QB whatever the out come. Taysom is still on contract for another year or two and no Brees dead money. Still have to make some hard decisions on skill positions but we would be better off with Brees than the cap hit and him in the broadcast booth.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

No, retirement is treated the same way as cut.

BUT

We are looking at Drew's contract as a finite document. That contract can be restructured in the off season and look completely different for his retirement. Both Loomis and Drew knew what they were getting into with that contract and it is written to allow Drew to decide his own destiny. If they both agree they can change it at will as long as the bonus/guaranteed portion is satisfied against the cap.

A restructured contract could be 1 year for league minimum and all the rest converted to NLTBE bonus which doesn't hit the cap.

NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) Pay him his $1.3M league minimum salary, put the remaining into a $22M 4,000 yard passing bonus which wont count against the cap for 2021 as he didn't throw for 4000 in 2020.

Drew retires and we eat league minimum. :bng:

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

The issue would be getting the league to approve. Contracts dealing with cap avoidance have been shot down recently. I know of two sign and trade type deals that were denied for those reasons in the past year or so.

Looking a little further I am not sure guarantees can even be converted to NLTBE as it is an incentive rather than a bonus.

"NFL contracts can have incentives that can give the player money if the player hits certain thresholds set in the contract. There are two types of incentives: Likely to be earned (LTBE) and Not likely to be earned (NLTBE). Incentives are classified as LTBE or NLTBE based on what the player did in the previous season in relation to the incentive. If a player would have earned the incentive in the previous year, the incentive is considered LTBE and the opposite is true for NLTBE. LTBE incentives count against the current year’s cap space for the team while NLTBE incentives are charged against the following year’s cap space. Some examples of incentives would be making the Pro Bowl, catching a certain amount of receptions, or based on playing time."

According to this it appears that even if allowed somehow the amount would still hit the cap the following year with NLTBE.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Read a little more than you quote and you'll see that LTBE that are charged against the cap but not earned are credited to the following years cap, and NLTBE that are not earned are not charged to any cap.

Guido an incentive is a bonus, not sure how you differentiate between the two words other than spelling.. and if you read what I wrote as long as the guaranteed portion is satisfied against the cap.

This is not a trade, you are ignoring context and context matters.

I am trying to figure out a valid point of your reply, it doesn't seem you paid attention to what I wrote or whats available on the internet about the cap. Just wanted to post words?

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

It doesn't matter if it is a trade or not. The league still has to approve of ALL contracts. Brees has already received the cash for those guarantees remaining on his current contract. What I was trying to point out is that even if there was some sort of way to convert the guarantees which were the result of signing bonuses into some sort of incentive (which I still believe couldn't be done), then the league would surely disallow the contract. The sign and trade scenarios were just examples of cap manipulative contracts denied by the league.

I repeat, Brees has already cashed those checks. The remaining guarantees are the accounting offsets for the payments already received. There's no way the league would allow them to just go away.

The only way to make those guarantees leave the books would be if Brees paid the Saints back $22.5 million in cash. If that would even be allowed I can't see that happening either. :D

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Prove he cashed those checks, show the check with the deposit receipt, or have a seat. :p

Only $25M was guaranteed and the remaining $25M is 2021 money not guaranteed and uncashed as a check.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

The $22.65 million is signing bonus already paid and has to be accounted for. That's the dead money we are talking about. Are you confusing the $25 million in base salary contracted for 2021? That CAN be restructured IF he returns and plays. If not it isn't on the books at all.

Drew Brees Spotrac

You are correct in that only $25 million of the contract signed in 2020 was guaranteed, but you are omitting the $4.25M of salary and an $11.95M roster bonus converted into a signing bonus in 2019 and prorated out, a portion of which is still included in the dead money.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

It shouldn't be that complicated. All that is really happening is the Saints are likely out of the running for any big money QB until they are completely done with Drew's cap hit. That should be either 1 or 2 years after his retirement. After a 1 or 2, then can go after big money guy, Hill can be that big money guy if he performs.

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What if:

Drew restructures his contract for 2021, doesn't show up for pre-season, suits up for Game 1, walks onto the field as starter, walks off after 1 play and retires?

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It’s $23.65 and has already been accounted for in the 2020 Cap hit because that’s when it was paid out... know what... phuck it, you are a mess to talk to.
Believe what you wish.

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Half the sunken guarantee must be included in the 2021 cap and the other half in 2022. The same scenario as if he was a post June 1st cut.

2021 Dead Cap: $11,150,000
2022 Dead Cap: $11,500,000

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

It is prorated signing bonus. It is NOT accounted for when paid out. That's the whole reason why they converted the 2019 base salary and roster bonus to a signing bonus and the same reason why they included a $25 million signing bonus in the 2020 contract ... so it could be paid in full up front, yet accounted for on a prorated basis partially in later years.

If a player signs a five year contract with $75 million signing bonus they are given a check for that $75 million either at the time of signing or sometime during the initial season (depending upon which is negotiated, but it has to be paid up front regardless). However, only $15 million is accounted for in that first year's cap even though it was all paid in that first year. The remainder is spread out over the remainder of the contract meaning $15 million will go to each year of the final four years, unless the player is cut, traded or retires, then the remainder is to be accounted for at that time.

I know what I'm talk about. It's not something I believe because I wish. It is the way NFL contracts work. Look at the link I provided. It shows the $22.65 million in dead cap for 2021 if Brees is cut, traded, or retires and how it is accounted for. That's all money Brees has already been paid, yet not yet accounted for in the books.

PRE-6/1 RELEASE

2021 Dead Cap: $22,650,000

2021 Cap Savings: $13,500,000

PRE-6/1 TRADE

2021 Dead Cap: $22,650,000

2021 Cap Savings: $13,500,000

POST-6/1 RELEASE

2021 Dead Cap: $11,150,000

2022 Dead Cap: $11,500,000

2021 Cap Savings: $25,000,000

POST-6/1 TRADE

2021 Dead Cap: $11,150,000

2022 Dead Cap: $11,500,000

2021 Cap Savings: $25,000,000

Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

How bout let the goat play another season. We’ll all be happy , not ready for prime time Hill just yet.


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Re: 1 Attachment(s) You are subscribed to this thread 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

That's all up to him. Loomis said Brees is welcome to return, but nobody will know for sure until a few weeks after the season is over. That was on a news brief on NFL Radio this morning.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Even with Drew's post June 1st retirement, we are still in trouble with the cap. TV revenue declined in a big way and obviously stadium revenue is gone...

Honestly not sure how Loomis will do it and field a competitive team next year. After this year its rebuilding for at least 2-3 years.

Edit:
I went to OTC and played with the 2021 cap... turns out we only need to cut $95m off of the cap. No big deal, I just post June 1st cut the top 10 players and we are good to go.

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Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

And this was the point I was making, I could see some players traded or cut:

• Andrus Peat could be traded this summer (after 1 June) for a sixth round pick and save $9M vs the cap...
  
  
• Terron Armstead would have to cut with a post 1 June date or traded after that date to save $11.75M...
  
  
• Cam Jordan, also a post 1 June move of trade or cut, would save $13.9M...
  
  
• Drew Brees in a post 1 June move would save the most at $25M...
  
  
• Nick Easton could be traded or cut before Jun 1 and save $6M, $6.5M after 1 Jun (though I think his career being over is a foregone conclusion, i.e. multiple concussions)...
  
  
• Thomas Morstead would save $3.5M in a post 1 Jun move...
  
  
• Malcolm Jenkins traded after 1 Jun would recover $6.2M in space...
  
  
• Janoris Jenkins, post 1 Jun cut would save $10M...
  
  
• Kwon Alexander pre/post Jun 1 cut would save $13.4M...
  
  
• Tre'Quan Smith pre/post Jun 1 cut would save $0.92M...

And don't forget, we'll have Trey Hendrickson, Alex Anzalone as free agents; in addition, we could extend, re-sign, restructure Ramczyk and Lattimore's contracts who will be in their team-option year...

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Keep trequon and dump the rest ah!


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Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

TV revenues didn't decline. Where did you get that idea? Stadium revenue, yes. Ad rates were up again this season and all network spots were pretty much sold out for the season before it barely got underway.

Broadcast contracts are set to be renewed this off-season and they are expecting record numbers again with all the networks jockeying to get a piece of the cash cow. That will have a direct impact on the 2021 cap number. Not enough to offset the losses at the gate, but enough to soften the blow a bit.

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He got the idea by reading which i understand is counterintuitive to just knowing every ****1ng thing.

A 6% decline in viewership ratings will result in a decline in per minute advertisement rates which will equal a Television revenue decline. Any dip in ratings gives the networks leverage in negotiations.

6%
https://apnews.com/article/election-...2b6ecdab29329e

a month later it rose
7%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...a90_story.html

Even the league recognized the pending dip which it why they are expanding to 17 regular season games. .

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Add theres lot folks talking 17 game season they will need to make allowances for either a enlarged squad on team day and more more to pay players for addition games. 21 games potion tail to get to Super Bowl that a long down to go.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

A decline in overall ratings does not correlate to a decrease in per minute rates. Those rates are based upon relative ratings, in other words percentage of viewership as compared to programming in the same window. While overall ratings have dropped annually over the last decade or so, the price demanded for advertising time has increased every year. The spots available for the 2020 season back in August were almost 10% higher than in 2019. They all sold out immediately and that translates into increased TV revenue. The annual decreases in network ratings can be traced to the increases in NFL viewing over streaming sources which are not included in those ratings, but the national commercial spots are still being seen by those viewers. Once again, as I pointed out, network ratings have dropped each of the last several years and TV revenues have increased each of the past several years. Why would that suddenly change in 2020? It hasn't.

Total advertising revenues for the year should be available a few weeks after the final game is over. How much will the revenue have increased over 2019? No telling, but based upon what I read back in August, the presales at the increased rates would ensure increased revenues in that area, but the league knew it would still take the major hit at the gates.

Also, see this from last week in the Wall Street Journal.

By Joe Flint
Jan. 8, 2021 9:00 am ET

The National Football League will allow CBS , NBC and Fox to sell an additional two minutes of commercials during the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, according to network and league officials.

That will mean several million dollars of new revenue for the networks, as NFL postseason games are among the most sought-after content for advertisers. A spot usually runs as high as $1 million during the early playoff rounds and can top $2 million for the conference championships that determine who plays in the Super Bowl, network executives said.

The extra ad inventory will be for all the playoff games starting this weekend but doesn’t include the Super Bowl, which will air on ViacomCBS Inc.’s CBS on Feb. 7. CBS is seeking as much as $5.5 million per commercial for the Super Bowl, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

The league agreed to the additional ad inventory after requests from the broadcast networks, which had already sold the bulk of commercial time for the playoffs and wanted to capitalize on strong demand from advertisers.

“The marketplace has been very good,” said John Bogusz, executive vice president of sports sales for CBS. Mr. Bogusz said the network is close to sold out for the playoffs and has a few spots remaining for the Super Bowl.

_____________________________________________

Apparently I spend a lot more time reading than some around here.

:rolleyes:

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

There was a bit of a panic by some advertisers due to the loss of the Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving broadcast due to the COVID-19 issues. They were given some reduced slots as reparations and/or "cash back". That's understandable as it is one of the most watched regular season broadcasts of the year. But things soon got back on track and as the Wall Street Journal that I referenced earlier points out, advertisers are begging for more commercial slots to buy at top dollar pricing.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

One more major misconception is that the NFL makes money from TV advertising. This is completely false. The NFL's TV revenue comes from the contracts with the individual networks, not from the ads purchased. Advertising dollars are paid to the networks, not the NFL. The NFL's TV revenues are set as soon as the network contracts are signed. The networks bid for the rights to carry the NFL so that they can generate their revenue from the advertising.

Any reduction in ad revenues could affect the next deal between the NFL and the networks, which could affect future NFL TV revenues, but it would have zero effect on this current year's revenue. But, considering the NFL remains the #1 money maker for the networks there is little to no chance the upcoming set of deals will be any lower than the ones currently in place.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Without a doubt there are some hard cuts coming.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

This stuff isn't hard to find...

"That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases."
https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-vi...egular-season/

"Despite having two extra games during the wildcard round the playoffs this season, interest was not there from football fans around the United States. According to Sportico, ratings for the games were down 25% on Saturday compared to last year and 20% on Sunday. That’s a major downtick in ratings for the NFL."
https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-rating...rship-numbers/

"Disappointing NFL ratings are forcing television networks to restructure deals with advertisers to make up for the smaller audience, according to a Wall Street Journal report."
https://deadline.com/2020/12/nfl-rat...rt-1234655747/

Most TV deals expire in 2022 and there will likely be a bidding war for contracts that benifit the NFL, but there is an assumption that the decline was due to Covid and the ratings will come back to the 5% annual growth observed most years. However, I would argue most viewers won't come back because of what the NFL (like other companies) has done to devalue their brand (wokeness).

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Yes, ratings are down. But you stated that TV revenues were down ("TV revenue declined in a big way"). That simply not correct. TV revenues are contractual. They are set. But the fact remains that the NFL is still the most watched programming on broadcast television and the next round of deals will be higher than ever.

The audience for the NFL isn't the same as it was ten years ago. It is far more global. It is more streaming based than ever. That portion of the population than appear to be butthurt by "wokeness" is a tiny minority. The rest of the audience is growing far faster than the few thinking they are some sort of rebel. Advertisers don't give a sh!t about your demographic anymore. Note the growing makeup of commercials featuring mixed marriages and gay relationships. You are a minority now. Face it.

Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints
 

Lol
You’re assuming a lot there. To start, you’re assuming that advertising and programming today is centered to drive revenue or sell products. There is more propaganda in programming today than anything else. Considering the media across the country is controlled by less than 3% of the population.... but I digress.

As for being a minority, yes I am indeed that. I have, and my people have been a minority for hundreds if not thousands of years.

We are getting off topic a bit—

Streaming is all ad captured, the legal stream services at least. You’re right it’s contracted and I stated that, but I also read that some media companies are able to recoup lost revenue they had amounted to 2.3 billion for the year.